The hottest forest paper alliance is the second go

Forest paper union is the gold medal strategy to reshape China's paper industry (II)

III. The impact of China's entry into WTO on China's paper industry

as mentioned above, China's paper industry has basically been in line with the international market since the late eighth five year plan period, and about 20% of China's paper consumption depends on the international market. It should be said that China's paper industry, as a general competitive industry, has entered the ranks of internationalization of the domestic market earlier, but after China's entry into WTO, We will still face severe challenges

1. Tariffs continue to be lowered

China once adjusted the import tariff of paper products in 1998. According to the statistics of the adjusted customs import tariff rate, the average tariff of China's paper products is about 20%, the highest is 45%, and the lowest is 10%. In 1999, the import tariff rate of pulp and waste paper was adjusted again and reduced to zero. At present, the average tariff level of papermaking in most countries in the world is about 5% - 6%. After joining the WTO, except for paper, which belongs to the national strategic paper, other products of the paper industry do not belong to the protective category. The average tariff level has been reduced from the current tax rate of 15% - 25% to 5% - 7.5% in 2005, with a decrease of 7% - 17.5%; The import of pulp and waste paper will continue to implement zero tariff

2. Impact on the development of the paper industry

-- impact on enterprises. After China's entry into WTO, paper-making enterprises, whether joint-venture, wholly-owned, state-owned, township or private, will have a polarized development trend. Large enterprises with modern technology and equipment will expand their production scale through stock assets reorganization or internal expansion in order to enhance their competitiveness; While small and medium-sized enterprises with outdated technology and backward equipment are increasingly in trouble, or closed or stopped, or merged or transferred. According to the analysis of industry experts, the number of enterprises affected will reach 60%, and the number of unemployed will reach 700000, so as to facilitate the comparative analysis of about people. After joining the WTO, domestic enterprises will participate in the competition according to international practices, which will certainly promote the transformation of the management mechanism of China's paper enterprises

-- impact on products. With the further reduction of tariffs, the import of paper and paper products will increase significantly. It is estimated that from 2000 to 2005, the actual import dependence will rise from the current 20% to about 25%. On the one hand, the increase of imported paper will squeeze domestic similar products. On the other hand, it will also encourage domestic enterprises to develop high-grade paper products in case of danger, such as common equipment failures and staff violations, and eliminate the production of low-grade paper products with excess production capacity, so as to diversify the variety of paper products

-- impact on technology. After joining the WTO, some technologically backward equipment will be eliminated; Adding more advanced technology, equipment and production lines has become a top priority for retaining enterprises. It should be predicted optimistically that after China's entry into WTO, the technological progress of China's paper industry will be accelerated, and the overall technological level of the paper industry will be greatly improved

-- impact on funds. After joining the WTO, the country will further relax the restrictions on the introduction of foreign capital, and the investment environment will be greatly improved. The restrictions on the export proportion of products of foreign-invested enterprises and the balance of foreign exchange have been removed, and the transparency of foreign economic and trade policies has increased. In addition to the restrictions imposed by a few countries on banknote paper, stamp paper and other varieties, the vast majority of projects encourage and support the introduction of foreign investment in a variety of ways. At the same time, the huge potential of the domestic paper market has long been favored by foreign-invested enterprises. These will provide good opportunities for the accelerated modernization of China's paper industry

-- influence on the structure of raw materials. In 1999, the import tariff rate of pulp and waste paper in China has been adjusted to zero. It can be said that before joining the WTO, China opened its door to foreign pulp and waste paper. In 1999, China imported 3.0802 million tons of wood pulp, an increase of 41.35% compared with 1998; However, in 2000, China imported about 3.2944 million tons of wood pulp, an increase of only 6.95% over 1999. The reason why the situation of "foreign pulp" competing for the Chinese market has not formed after zero tariff shows that the raw material structure of China's paper industry has inertia in a certain period of time, and non wood fibers still have a large market space. This is determined by the so-called "stock rigidity", that is, once fixed assets enter the paper industry, they will have specificity (wood pulp paper-making special equipment, straw pulp paper-making special equipment), and it is difficult to exit. Despite the impact of zero tariff on "foreign pulp", it is difficult for domestic paper-making enterprises to adjust the structure of paper-making raw materials dominated by straw pulp in the short term

according to the above analysis, China's entry into WTO will bring both opportunities and challenges to the development of China's paper industry. On the one hand, international capital and advanced technology will be transferred to China, which is conducive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; On the other hand, it will have a great impact on the paper market and uncompetitive enterprises, causing short-term shocks

fourth, the combination of forestry and paper is the gold medal strategy to reshape China's paper industry

facing China's accession to the WTO, the time has come to reshape China's paper industry. Starting from completely changing the structure of raw materials, it is the fundamental way to reshape China's paper industry to determine the strategy of developing paper industry based on wood pulp

1. The "battle of vegetation" with Chinese characteristics

choosing wood or herbaceous plants as pulping raw materials to develop the paper industry has a direct impact on the benefits of enterprises. At the same time, it also determines the survival and development of the industry, and even has a profound impact on the development of the entire national economy

it is quite different from the mainstream of the world's paper industry - wood pulp papermaking (accounting for 95%), and China is taking a papermaking road based on the use of grass resources. The second national paper industry conference held in 1951 once proposed the development direction of China's paper industry that "in the long run, wood pulp should be the main and straw pulp should be the auxiliary". However, a major turning point occurred in 1958, and the development strategy of "straw based" was clearly put forward. Since then, China's paper industry has embarked on the development path of "grass based"

there is a profound economic and social background for China to choose straw pulp for papermaking. On the one hand, China is a large agricultural country with rich grass resources, and wheat straw is concentrated in Shandong, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and other provinces; Straw is concentrated in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Hubei and other provinces and regions; Hunan, Hubei and Northeast China are rich in reed resources, while Guangdong and Guangxi are rich in sugarcane resources; On the other hand, China is a country with a shortage of forest resources. Although the total forest area ranks fifth in the world, the per capita forest area ranks 119 in the world. Moreover, from the early days of the founding of the people's Republic of China to the reform and opening up, under the strategic background of giving priority to the development of heavy chemical industry, the scarce forest resources have been given priority to the capital construction, and the paper industry belonging to the light industry has naturally been excluded

after the reform and opening up, in the heat wave of the sudden rise of township enterprises, small straw pulp paper mills bloomed everywhere. For a time, environmental pollution was shocking. In the face of various problems existing in China's paper industry, reflecting on the development of China's paper industry, the "dispute between vegetation" has gradually become clear, and a consensus has basically formed on "focusing on wood"

2. Advantages of wood papermaking

-- Quality Comparison: wood has good fiber quality, high pulp yield, less impurities, good water filtration, easy washing, good papermaking performance, high paper strength and high whiteness; Straw pulp raw materials have low cellulose and lignin contents, low pulp yield and high content of heterogenous cells, which not only affect the strength of pulp, but also affect its water filtration

-- comparison of finished products: wood pulp paper has good quality and high grade, which can not only meet the needs of various high-grade paper, but also has high technical content, and can be widely used in industry, agriculture, national defense, communications, medical and health care and other fields; The quality of straw pulp paper is low

-- comparison of environmental effects: wood pulping is adopted, the waste liquid treatment technology is mature and reliable, the black liquor extraction rate and alkali recovery rate are high, the sewage treatment is easy, and the environmental pollution is small; Straw pulping has a high content of ash, especially silicon, which affects the alkali recovery of pulping black liquor and pollutes the environment

-- comparison of economies of scale: the supply of wood is stable, centralized, and has economies of scale. It is the raw material suitable for the production of large enterprises; Grass supply presents the characteristics of "small and scattered", which does not have scale efficiency or scale efficiency is not high

-- comparison of raw material storage: wood is dense in volume, which is convenient for transportation and storage; However, it is difficult to store raw materials for pulping and papermaking with grass fibers, especially bagasse, which will change color and deteriorate once it is not stored well

3. China's wood pulp paper and paper products have great market potential

① The import development trend of wood pulp, wood pulp paper and paper products

at present, there are more than 600 varieties of machine-made paper and paperboard in China, but more than 80% of them are medium and low-grade products. Due to the serious shortage of domestic supply of medium and high-grade paper and paperboard (mostly coated paper and whiteboard) with wood fiber as raw material and wood pulp as main raw material, it needs to rely on imports in large quantities. According to the 2001 China forestry development report, in the wood consumption structure of China's major industries in 2000, the paper industry consumed about 9million cubic meters of domestic wood and 2million tons of wood pulp. At the same time, in 2000, 3.294 million tons of imported commercial wood pulp, 33000 tons of waste pulp, 3.71 million tons of waste paper, 5.96 million tons of paper and paperboard, and 350000 tons of paper products were imported, equivalent to about 50.65 million cubic meters of wood, higher than the level of 47.2397 million cubic meters of domestic commercial wood in the year, with a total consumption of foreign exchange of 6.63 billion US dollars. Such a large import demand, if translated into domestic production, will provide a broad space for the development of domestic wood pulp and paper enterprises

②. Prediction of paper and paperboard consumption

according to the population growth prediction of relevant scholars, the average annual growth rate of China's population may be between 0.79% (high plan) and 0.46% (low plan) from 2000 to 2020. Based on this, we speculate that:

if the population growth plan is 0.46%, the total population of China will reach 132.512 million in 2005. If the per capita consumption of paper and paperboard reaches the Asian average of 38 kg, the total consumption of paper and paperboard in China will reach 50.3546 million tons; In 2015, the population will reach 1387.29 million. If the per capita consumption of paper and paperboard reaches the world average of 53.8 kg, The total consumption of paper and paperboard in China will reach 73.5264 million, compared with "Since entering the platform last year, there have been tons of foreign products.

if the population growth plan is predicted at 0.79%, China's total population will reach 1347.14 million in 2005. If the per capita consumption of paper and paperboard reaches the Asian average of 38 kg, China's total consumption of paper and paperboard will reach 51.1913 million tons; in 2015, the population will reach 1457.24 million, and if the per capita consumption of paper and paperboard reaches the world average of 53.8 kg, China's paper and paperboard consumption will disappear The total cost will reach 77.2337 million tons

according to the prediction of industry experts, by 2005, China's consumption of paper and paperboard is expected to reach more than 50million tons, and the per capita consumption will reach 38 kg, which is the current average consumption level in Asia, while it will take about 2015 to reach the current world average consumption level. At that time, the total consumption will be more than 80million tons

to sum up, the consumption of paper and paperboard in China is expected to reach more than 50million tons in 2005 and about 80million tons in 2015

③ there is a broad space for the development of forestry and paper industry

at present, there are more than 50 pulp and paper enterprises in China with wood as raw materials, with a production capacity of about 2.5 million tons, the average scale of enterprises is only 50000 tons, and the largest scale of pulp and paper enterprises is 265000 tons/year. In 2000, the total consumption of pulp was 27.9 million tons, including 5.35 million tons of wood pulp, 11.16 million tons of non wood pulp and waste paper